[RSM] W3LPL: Normal thru late Tues, then below normal thru Wed

[Art Boyars]

Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 00:46:24 -0500 (EST) From: Frank W3LPL <
donovanf at starpower.net> To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net> Subject: [PVRC]
Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through late  Tuesday, then
mostly below normal through Wednesday Message-ID:

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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through late
Tuesday then mostly normal through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late
Tuesday then mostly below through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through late Tuesday then below normal through Wednesday.

 Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 130 through Wednesday.
There are six active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 37 tiny,
small and moderate size sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
through late Tuesday then below normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Wednesday is likely to be below normal. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to
be mostly normal on Tuesday then below normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through late Tuesday then below normal through
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Tuesday then below
normal through Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal through late
Tuesday then below normal through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through late Tuesday then below normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be relatively brief
through late Tuesday then very poor through Wednesday due to high
geomagnetic activity and marginally adequate ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly near nominal levels through late
Tuesday then significantly enhanced through Wednesday. . Coronal hole high
speed stream effects may gradually enhance the solar wind after late
Tuesday, much greater enhancement is likely during Wednesday due to
anticipated CME arrival. There is a chance that M-class solar flares could
cause brief radio blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth through
Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through late Tuesday then
active to moderate storm levels through Wednesday. Active geomagnetic
conditions are possible after mid day Tuesday due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects. CME arrival is likely to cause minor to moderate
geomagnetic storm conditions through Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 41 minutes later and day length
is 50 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due the
reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region, waning winter
solstice effects and increased geomagnetic activity.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]