[RSM] W3LPL: Below normal thru early Thurs, then improving

[Art Boyars]

Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2022 01:55:45 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through
early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly normal after mid day Thursday
Message-ID: <1127222081.13347471.1643784945413.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"



My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes, auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be below normal through early Thursday, gradually improving to
mostly normal after mid day Thursday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions, updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 130 through Thursday. There
are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 48 tiny, small
and moderate size sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be below normal through
early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly normal after mid day Thursday

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be below normal. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to
be below normal on Wednesday then mostly normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be below normal through early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly
normal after mid day Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be below normal through early Thursday, gradually
improving to mostly normal after mid day Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be below
normal through early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly normal after
mid day Thursday

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be below normal
through early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly normal after mid day
Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be below normal
through early Thursday, gradually improving to mostly normal after mid day
Thursday due to high geomagnetic activity and marginally adequate ionizing
solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in riggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly
and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field
strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time
geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be significantly enhanced to disturbed though
early Thursday due to strong CME effects, gradually improving to mildly to
slightly enhanced after mid day Thursday. There is a chance that M-class
solar flares could cause brief radio blackouts on the sun facing side of
the Earth through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be at minor to moderate storm levels
with possible major storm levels through late Wednesday, declining to minor
storm levels early Thursday and gradually improving to mostly quiet after
mid day Thursday .

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 42 minutes later and day length
is 52 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due the
reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region and significantly
increased geomagnetic activity.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]