[RSM] W3LPL: Normal, w/ some MUF depressions thru Thursday/6

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 02:01:08 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with some MUF depressions due to
low ionizing solar flux through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be normal with some MUF depressions due to low
ionizing solar flux through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 85 through Thursday. There
is one active region on the Earth facing disk with two tiny sunspots having
no significant effect on propagation.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with some MUF depressions due to low ionizing solar
flux through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with some MUF depressions due
to low ionizing solar flux through Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with some MUF depressions due to low ionizing solar flux through
Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with some MUF depressions due to low ionizing solar flux through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be brief and
unreliable due to winter seasonal effects and low ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated
unsettled intervals through Thursday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active
geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 11 minutes later and day length
is 7 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net