[RSM] W3LPL forecast for Tue and Wed

[Art Boyars]

Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 00:50:59 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Brief periods of below normal propagation are possible
 Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on Wednesday
Message-ID:
 <67100209.77690918.1642485059149.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions may be briefly
below normal during Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal on
Wednesday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be at least 114 through Wednesday.
There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 27 mostly
tiny and small sunspots.

[ https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to Asia may be briefly
below normal during Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on
Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z may be briefly below normal during Tuesday gradually improving to
mostly normal on Wednesday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0730Z may be
briefly below normal during Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on
Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions may be
briefly below normal during Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions may be briefly below normal during Tuesday gradually
improving to mostly normal on Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset may be briefly below normal during
Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation may be briefly below normal
during Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be shorter in
duration and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and marginal
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here:

[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind is likely to be moderately disturbed by waning coronal hole high
speed stream effects on Tuesday then gradually improving to mildly enhanced
during Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active on Tuesday due to
waning coronal hole high speed stream effects, then gradually improving to
mostly quiet with brief unsettled periods on Wednesday. There is a slight
chance of minor geomagnetic storms caused by possible CME arrivals on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts caused by
possible M-class solar flares on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 24 minutes later and day length
is 23 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar
region are very low due the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern
polar region due to winter solstice effects.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]