[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe mild degradation late Thur thru early Fri

[Art Boyars]

Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 01:00:11 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely with possible mild
degradation from late Thursday through early Friday
Message-ID: <994906531.82858300.1642658411883.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from
late Thursday through early Friday.

 Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 102 through Friday. There
are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 17 mostly tiny
and small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from late Thursday through early Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Friday is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations through
Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from late Thursday
through early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
from late Thursday through early Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from late Thursday through early Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations from late Thursday through early Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be shorter in
duration and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and low ionizing
solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]
Solar wind is likely to be slightly enhanced by waning coronal hole high
speed stream and possible CME effects on Thursday with possible minor
enhancement during the first half of Friday caused by possible CME effects.


The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of
brief active periods through Friday due to waning coronal hole high speed
stream and possible CME effects. There is a slight chance of minor to
moderate radio blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth caused by
possible weak M-class solar flares through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 26 minutes later and day length
is 27 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

 Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily. Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for
DXers can be found at:
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]