[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast Wed and Thur

Wed Jan 19 02:11:02 EST 2022

Note: These have started arriving with a different formatting, and I'm
still trying to figure out an efficient way to clean it up -- Art
VE4VTR/K3KU

Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2022 01:45:02 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely Wednesday with possible
mild degradation during the first half of Thursday
Message-ID:<63006151.80450838.1642574702548.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Wednesday with possible mild degradation during the
first half of Thursday.

 Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 114 through Thursday.
There are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 19 mostly
tiny and small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Wednesday with possible mild degradation during the first half of Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation on
Thursday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with possible
mild degradation on Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal during Wednesday with possible mild degradation during
the first half of Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday with possible
mild degradation during the first half of Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal during Wednesday with possible mild degradation during the first
half of Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
during Wednesday with possible mild degradation during the first half of
Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be shorter in
duration and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and marginal
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind is likely to be slightly enhanced by waning coronal hole
high speed stream effects on Wednesday with possible minor enhancement
during the first half of Thursday caused by a possible glancing blow
by a CME.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of
brief active periods through Thursday due to waning coronal hole high speed
stream effects and a possible glancing blow by a CME early Thursday. There
is a slight chance of minor radio blackouts caused by possible weak M-class
solar flares through Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 25 minutes later and day length
is 25 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

 Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ] *