[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal likely thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:05:07 -0500 (EST) From: Frank W3LPL <
donovanf at starpower.net> To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net> Subject: [PVRC]
Mostly normal propagation is likely through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible weak degradations from late Friday through early Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mild degradations from late Saturday through
early Sunday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

 The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 95 through Sunday. There
are two active regions on the Earth facing disk containing five tiny and
small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradations from late Saturday through early Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations on
Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from late Saturday
through early Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
from late Saturday through early Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from late Saturday through early Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations from late Saturday through early Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be short in duration
and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and low ionizing solar
flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced by waning coronal hole
high speed stream effects on Friday with a chance of weak enhancements from
a glancing blow by a CME from late Saturday through early Sunday.

 The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
intervals on Friday, than quiet to unsettled through Sunday with a chance
of brief active periods from late Saturday through early Sunday due to
possible CME effects. There is a slight chance of minor to moderate radio
blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth caused by possible weak
M-class solar flares during Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 29 minutes later and day length
is 30 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

 Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily. Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for
DXers can be found at: [ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation |
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.net/ |
http://www.solarham.net ]