[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:52:57 -0500 (EST)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>

Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday

Message-ID: <1354793686.91637846.1643003577415.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>

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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mild degradations from mid day Monday through
early Tuesday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 90 through Tuesday. There
is only one active region on the Earth facing disk containing only one
small sunspot. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from mid day Monday through early Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Tuesday is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from mid day Monday
through early Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
from mid day Monday through early Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations from mid day Monday through early Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations from mid day Monday through early Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be very short in
duration and much less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and low
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed may be mildly enhanced by possible coronal hole high speed
stream effects and glancing blows by CMEs from mid day Monday through early
Tuesday .

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled with possible
active periods caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects and
glancing blows by CMEs from mid day Monday through early Tuesday .

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 31 minutes later and day length
is 33 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]