[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe, maybe some below normal through Thurs.

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 00:51:37 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
slightly below normal intervals at mid and high latitudes through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal intervals.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 144 and is likely remain unchanged. The
sun’s visible disk has seven active regions with 44 mostly tiny and a few
medium sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal
intervals.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal
intervals. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below
normal intervals.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal intervals. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly
below normal intervals. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
slightly below normal intervals. Long distance 20 meter propagation during
daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of slightly below normal intervals.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of slightly below normal intervals. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be poor
due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer. Transatlantic
sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from mid-morning through late
afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with a chance of
minor storm conditions due to continuing coronal hole high speed stream and
CME effects. We are in the summer solstice season when active conditions
and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.   Minor radio blackouts affecting circuits crossing the sunlit
regions of the ionosphere are likely through Thursday with a slight chance
of moderate or stronger radio blackouts.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is seven minutes earlier than it
was on June 21st and day length is 23 minutes shorter.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net