[RSM] W3LPL: Normal Thurs; some below normal Fri

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2022 01:26:34 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal Thursday with
likely below normal intervals at mid and high latitudes during Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal.   Propagation
crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with possible below
normal intervals during Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with likely below normal intervals from late Thursday through
Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 133 and is likely to decline slightly.
The sun’s visible disk has eight active regions with 49 mostly tiny and a
few medium sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be mostly normal with likely below normal intervals from late
Thursday through late Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with likely below normal intervals from
during Friday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal with likely below normal
intervals during Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with likely below normal intervals from late Thursday
through late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with likely below normal
intervals from late Thursday through late Friday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of slightly below normal intervals. Long distance 20
meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1
region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with likely below normal intervals from late Thursday through late Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with likely below normal intervals from late Thursday through late Friday.
12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes
is likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from
mid-morning through late afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced due to combined CME
and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with likely minor
storm conditions from late Thursday through late Friday due to combined
coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects. We are in the summer
solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms are about
half as likely as during the equinox seasons.   Minor radio blackouts
affecting circuits crossing the sunlit regions of the ionosphere are likely
through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is eight minutes earlier than it
was on June 21st and day length is 25 minutes shorter.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net