[RSM] W3LPL: A dip after late Fri; back to normal by early Sun

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2022 01:53:39 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal Friday with below
normal intervals at mid and high latitudes after late Friday and improving
by early Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals especially early Saturday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal until late Friday, mostly below normal starting early
Saturday gradually improving to mostly normal after mid-day Saturday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 122 declining slightly through Sunday.
The sun’s visible disk has nine active regions with 34 mostly tiny and a
few medium sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals from late Friday
through mid-day Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals Saturday.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is
likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals on Saturday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal intervals from late Friday through
mid-day Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals
from late Friday through mid-day Saturday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
below normal intervals from late Friday through mid-day Saturday. Long
distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely
degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2
region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals from late Friday through mid-day Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals from late Friday through mid-day Saturday. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is
likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from
mid-morning through late afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced due to combined
effects of a weak CME arrival and multiple coronal hole high speed streams.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with minor to
moderate geomagnetic storm conditions from late Friday through mid-day
Saturday gradually improving to mostly unsettled to active by mid-day
Saturday and mostly quiet after mid-day Sunday due to combined coronal hole
high speed stream and CME effects.   There is a slight chance of minor
radio blackouts affecting circuits crossing the sunlit regions of the
ionosphere through Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is nine minutes earlier than it was
on June 21st and day length is 28 minutes shorter.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net