[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal thru Tuesday/14

[Art Boyars]

This one is a little late.  I usually get them in the middle of the night,
and use my middle-of-the-nigh awakenings to forward them.  This one did not
arrive until Monday morning.

Art
===============================================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2022 00:57:50 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 121 and is forecast to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has four active region with 23
mostly tiny sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid
latitudes is likely to be unreliable due to depressed MUFs that occur from
late spring through late summer. Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is
possible especially from mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced through Tuesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
intervals through Tuesday. We are in the summer solstice season when active
conditions and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely as during the
equinox seasons.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 73 minutes later and day length
is 164 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net