[RSM] W3LPL: Below norm Wed, improving by mid-day Thur

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2022 01:11:55 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be below normal on Wednesday
improving to mostly normal by mid-day Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on
Wednesday improving to normal by mid-day Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be below normal on
Wednesday improving to mostly normal by mid-day Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions likely to be poor
on Wednesday improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 146 and is forecast remain about the same
through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has seven active regions with 51
tiny sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to
normal by mid-day Thursday, 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely
to be poor on Wednesday improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be poor on Thursday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be poor on
Wednesday improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be poor on Wednesday improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be poor on Wednesday improving to below
normal by mid-day Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be poor on Wednesday improving to
below normal by mid-day Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be poor on Wednesday
improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly poor on
Wednesday improving to below normal by mid-day Thursday. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely to
be unreliable due to depressed MUFs that occur from late spring through
late summer. Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially
from mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation an IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced and disturbed on
Wednesday due to coronal hole high stream effects and a glancing blow by a
CME, improving to slightly enhanced after mid-day Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be at minor geomagnetic storm levels
through late Wednesday day due to coronal hole high speed stream effects
combined with a possible glancing blow by a CME with a chance of moderate
G2 storms and a slight chance of strong G3 storms. Coronal hole high speed
stream and CME effects are likely to steadily weaken through late Thursday.
We are in the summer solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic
storms are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.

There is a chance of a minor to moderate radio blackout and a slight chance
of strong radio blackout affecting propagation crossing the sun facing side
of the earth on Wednesday and Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 74 minutes later and day length
is 165 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net