[RSM] W3LPL: Likely mostly normal thru Friday/17

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2022 01:30:45 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly below normal on Thursday improving to mostly normal by mid-day
Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 140 and is forecast remain about the same
through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has eight active regions with 69
tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly below normal on Thursday
improving to mostly normal by mid-day Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly below
normal on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly below normal on Thursday improving to mostly normal by mid-day
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to mostly below normal on Thursday improving to
mostly normal by mid-day Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly below normal on
Thursday improving to mostly normal by mid-day Friday.  20 meter mid-day long
distance propagation via the F2 region is significantly depressed during
the summer by sporadic-E and F1 region blanketing of the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal on Thursday improving to mostly normal by mid-day Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal on Thursday improving to mostly normal by mid-day Friday. 12 and 10
meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely
to be poor due to seasonal depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from
mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced on Thursday due to
coronal hole high stream effects and diminishing CME impacts, gradually
improving to slightly enhanced by mid-day Friday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with a chance of
minor storm conditions on Thursday due to coronal hole high stream effects
and diminishing CME impacts. Coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects
are likely to steadily diminish through mid-day Friday. We are in the
summer solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms are
about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.

There is a chance of a minor to moderate radio blackout and a slight chance
of strong radio blackout affecting propagation crossing the sun facing side
of the earth on Thursday and Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 74 minutes later and day length
is 165 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net