[RSM] W3LPL: Normal thru ARRL DX Test SSB

[Art Boyars]

Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 02:19:16 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday
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<1247080817.23162988.1646378356509.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from late Friday
through mid day Sunday.


Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly.

 The solar flux index (SFI) is 114 and likely to be about 110 on Saturday
and Sunday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 17 tiny, small and medium sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals from late Friday through mid day Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Saturday and Sunday is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals. 40 meter short path propagation from North America
to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance
of below normal intervals on Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from late
Friday through mid day Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal
intervals from late Friday through mid day Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of below normal intervals from late Friday through mid
day Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of below normal intervals from late Friday through mid day Sunday

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of below normal intervals from late Friday through mid day Sunday;
however, long distance propagation is likely to be mostly brief due to
marginal ionizing solar flux especially on propagation paths crossing high
latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels through late Friday.
Mildly elevated solar wind speed is likely from late Friday through mid day
Sunday due to coronal hole high speed effects and possible CME interactions
early Sunday. There is a chance that M-class solar flares could cause radio
blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth through Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through late Friday. There
is a chance of unsettled to active intervals and a slight chance of minor
storm conditions from late Friday through mid day Sunday due to coronal
hole high speed effects and possible CME interactions early Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 76 minutes later and day length
is 124 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
short day length and somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern
polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]