[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Wed/9

[Art Boyars]

Sorry that I missed Monday's edition.  It arrived late, and I was QRL.
Here is the Tuesday edition.

Art

==========================

Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 01:13:44 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday
Message-ID: <1561415668.31116303.1646720024862.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday. Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Wednesday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is 118 and likely to remain at about 118 on
Wednesday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
34 tiny, small and medium sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
improving to normal on Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Wednesday is likely to be normal. 40 meter short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0845Z is likely to be mostly
normal improving to normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal improving to normal on Wednesday. 30 meter propagation
is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because
of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on
Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
improving to normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
improving to normal on Wednesday; however, ong distance propagation is
likely to be mostly brief due to marginal ionizing solar flux especially on
propagation paths crossing high latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated improving to background
levels on Wednesday. There is a slight chance that M-class solar flares
could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit portions of the
Earth through Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet after mid day Tuesday
improving to quiet on Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes later and day length
is 132 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are relatively
low due to short day length and somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the
northern polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily. Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found
at: [ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]