[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal, some degrading mostly normal thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2022 01:46:53 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday
Message-ID: <1614741155.33361765.1646808413619.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday. Propagation
crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal, likely degrading to mostly
normal after mid day Thursday. Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be likely to be normal, degrading to mostly
normal with the possibility of below normal intervals after mid day
Thursday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly. The solar flux index (SFI) is likely
to remain at about 115 through Thursday. There are six active regions on
the Earth facing disk containing 33 tiny, small and medium sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ] 160 and
80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south Pacific is
likely to be normal through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be
normal, degrading to mostly normal with the possibility of below
normal intervals
after mid day Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be normal. 40 meter short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0845Z is likely to be normal.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal, degrading to mostly normal with the possibility of below
normal intervals after mid day Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be normal, degrading to mostly normal with the
possibility of below normal intervals after mid day Thursday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be normal, degrading to mostly normal with the possibility of below
normal intervals after mid day Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal, degrading to
mostly normal with the possibility of below normal intervals after mid day
Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal, degrading
to mostly normal with the possibility of below normal intervals after mid
day Thursday; however, long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
brief due to marginal ionizing solar flux especially on propagation paths
crossing high latitudes. Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal
hole high speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and
somewhat less frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent
southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the
effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5
nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels then mildly
elevated after mid day Thursday. There is a slight chance that M-class
solar flares could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit
portions of the Earth through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet, degrading to mostly unsettled
with the possibility of active to minor storm levels after mid day
Thursday. We are in the more geomagnetically active equinox season when
active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely as during
the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 80 minutes later and day length
is 134 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are relatively
low due to short day length and somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the
northern polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]