[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Sunday, March 13

[Art Boyars]

Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 01:44:21 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday
Message-ID: <1690215144.37923179.1646981061482.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Sunday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly .

The solar flux index (SFI) is 127 and is likely to remain above 120 through
Sunday. There are six active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 30
tiny, small and medium sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0845Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal
through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated through Saturday declining
to background levels on Sunday. There is a slight chance that M-class solar
flares could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit portions
of the Earth through Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with the possibility of
unsettled intervals through Sunday. We are in the more geomagnetically
active equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are
about twice as likely as during the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 83 minutes later and day length
is 142 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]