[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe a dip; back to normal by mid-day Tue/15

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 02:58:16 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with possible below normal
periods gradually improving to mostly normal by mid day Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a
chance of below normal intervals gradually improving to normal by early
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal by
early Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal periods gradually improving to
mostly normal by mid day Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is 123 and is likely to remain above 120 through
Tuesday. There are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
24 tiny, small and medium sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal
intervals gradually improving to normal by early Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
below normal periods gradually improving to mostly normal by mid day
Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Tuesday is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0845Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals on Monday and mostly normal with a chance of below normal
intervals on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal periods gradually improving to mostly
normal by mid day Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal periods
gradually improving to mostly normal by mid day Tuesday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal periods gradually improving to mostly
normal by mid day Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with
below normal periods gradually improving to mostly normal by mid day
Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal gradually improving to mostly normal by mid day Tuesday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably* when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly to moderately elevated declining to
mildly elevated by mid day Tuesday. There is a chance that M-class solar
flares could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit portions
of the Earth through Tuesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with the possibility
of a minor geomagnetic storm early Tuesday, improving to mostly unsettled
by mid day Tuesday. We are in the more geomagnetically active equinox
season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as
likely as during the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 85 minutes later and day length
is 147 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net