[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Wed/16

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 00:33:39 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals, gradually improving
to mostly normal before mid day Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is 117 and is likely to remain above 115 through
Wednesday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 32 tiny, small and medium sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a
chance of below normal intervals, gradually improving to mostly normal
before mid day Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Wednesday is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal
intervals. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0845Z Wednesday is likely to be mostly normal.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals, gradually
improving to mostly normal before mid day Wednesday. 30 meter propagation
is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because
of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal
intervals, gradually improving to mostly normal before mid day Wednesday.
20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals,
gradually improving to mostly normal before mid day Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a
chance of below normal intervals, gradually improving to mostly normal
before mid day Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of below normal intervals, gradually improving to mostly normal
before mid day Wednesday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably* when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated, gradually improving to
near background levels by mid day Wednesday. There is a chance that M-class
solar flares could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit
portions of the Earth through Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled, improving to
mostly quiet by mid day Wednesday. We are in the more geomagnetically active
equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice
as likely as during the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 86 minutes later and day length
is 149 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net