[RSM] "Major to Severe Geomagnetic Storms over the next Ten or More Years"

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 16:22:33 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Major to Severe Geomagnetic Storms over the next Ten or
More Years
N1EN's email to the CWOPS email reflector reminds us that we're in a
very geomagnetically quiet four year period since late 2017.  The ongoing
quiet geomagnetic period has been interrupted by only two major G2
geomagnetic storms:

   - four months ago on 11/04/2021
www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/year/2021.html
<http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/solar-cycle/25.html>

   - at the end of solar cycle 24 on 8/18/2018
www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/year/2018.html
<http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/solar-cycle/25.html>

We can expect many more minor G1 geomagnetic storms --  as many as
12 storms per year -- as we approach solar maximum in about two years
and for a few years after solar maximum.

Major G2 major geomagnetic storms are likely to remain infrequent, perhaps
only one or two per year.  Luck plays a major role because many potential
major G2 to extreme G4 geomagnetic storms do not occur when a powerful
coronal mass ejection (CME) is not earth directed.  This is just one of many
lucky misses:

www.vox.com/2014/7/30/5951263/a-catastrophic-solar-storm-just-barely-missed-earth-in-2012
<https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/swe.20097>

Severe G3 geomagnetic storms are likely to remain rare, perhaps one or two
storms over the next ten or more years unless ongoing solar cycle 25
becomes much more active. The last severe G3 geomagnetic storms
were in 2004 when we had four plus one severe G4 storm

www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/year/2004.html

An extreme G4 geomagnetic storm is unlikely for at least the next
ten years, but cannot be ruled out.  The last one was on 7/27/2004

www.researchgate.net/figure/Three-day-plots-of-the-26-27-of-July-2004-halo-CME-hit-of-the-Earth-Top-is-the-proton_fig1_240452543

73
Frank
W3LPL