[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thurs/17

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2022 01:56:30 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likel to be
mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal intervals late Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly

The solar flux index (SFI) is 120 and is likely to remain above 110 through
Thursday. There are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
31 tiny, small and medium sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a
slight chance of below normal intervals late Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be mostly normal. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0845Z Thursday is
likely to be mostly normal.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal intervals late
Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below
normal intervals late Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with a slight
chance of below normal intervals late Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a
slight chance of below normal intervals late Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a slight chance of below normal intervals late Thursday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably* when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels, gradually increasing
to mildly elevated levels by late Thursday. There is a chance that M-class
solar flares could cause radio blackouts of propagation crossing sunlit
portions of the Earth through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, degrading to unsettled
with a slight chance of active conditions late Thursday. We are in the more
geomagnetically active equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm
conditions are about twice as likely as during the solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 87 minutes later and day length
is 151 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net