[RSM] W3LPL propagation forecast thru Friday, Nov. 4

[Art Boyars]

"mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods at high latitudes
through Friday"

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2022 01:24:11 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mildly degraded periods at high latitudes through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 130 and is likely to remain about the
same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium sized and two
tiny NOAA active regions containing nine sunspots with a total area of 280
micro-hemispheres (about 1.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods
through Friday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly
degraded periods through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods through Friday.
30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly
degraded periods through Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mildly degraded periods through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded periods at high latitudes through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded periods at high latitudes through Friday. 12
and 10 meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced
through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of
elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be slightly and sporadically enhanced
through mid-November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues
to occur regularly at lower mid-latitudes through November, with
unreliable, shorter duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to be to mildly elevated through Friday due to
waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a
chance of isolated active intervals early Friday due to waning coronal hole
high speed stream effects.  There is a slight chance of minor geomagnetic
storm conditions through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 60 minutes earlier and day
length is 101 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net