[RSM] (no subject)

[Art Boyars]

Sorry for delay.  Busy day, plus getting ready for SS CW.  Hoping to work
lots of VE4, 5, 6.  I'll CQ on the high bands from time to time, so if you
look hard you can find me :>)  -- Art K3KU

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2022 01:39:22 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be fair to normal with mildly to
moderately degraded periods mostly at high latitudes through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be fair to normal
with possible mildly degraded periods through Saturday improving to normal
on Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly below normal with possible moderately degraded periods through
Saturday improving to mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods
on Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 125 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium sized and three
tiny NOAA active regions containing 15 sunspots with a total area of 280
micro-hemispheres (about 1.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be fair to normal with possible mildly
degraded periods through Saturday improving to normal on Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal to below normal with possible
moderately degraded periods through Saturday improving to mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded periods on Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly
normal to below normal with possible moderately degraded periods through
Saturday improving to mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods
on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal to below normal with possible moderately degraded
periods through Saturday improving to mostly normal with possible mildly
degraded periods on Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal to below normal with
possible moderately degraded periods through Saturday improving to mostly
normal with possible mildly degraded periods on Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal to below normal with possible moderately degraded periods through
Saturday improving to mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods
on Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal to
below normal with possible moderately degraded periods through Saturday
improving to mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal to
below normal with possible moderately degraded periods through Saturday
improving to mostly normal with possible mildly degraded periods on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced
through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of
elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be slightly and sporadically enhanced
through mid-November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues
to occur regularly at lower mid-latitudes through November, with
unreliable, shorter duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be strongly to very strongly elevated through
Saturday improving to moderately elevated on Sunday due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active through Sunday due
coronal hole high speed stream effects. Minor geomagnetic storm conditions
are possible with a slight chance of moderate geomagnetic storms through
Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 62 minutes earlier and day
length is 105 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net