[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some mildly degraded intervals early Thursday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 9 Nov 2022 00:49:29 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mildly degraded intervals early Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded
intervals early Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly .

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 132 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, three medium
and one tiny NOAA active regions containing 25 sunspots with a total area
of 730 micro-hemispheres (about four times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded intervals early Thursday.
30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly
degraded intervals early Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mildly degraded intervals early Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded intervals early Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded intervals early Thursday. 12 and 10 meter
long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through
mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar
ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to be
sporadically enhanced through November. 6 meter trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) continues to occur regularly at lower mid-latitudes
through November, with less reliable, shorter duration propagation
extending to somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effect of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts and a slight chance
of strong radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray
radiation from M-class solar flares through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to be periodically weakly enhanced through
Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled on Wednesday and
quiet to unsettled with possible active intervals early Thursday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects. There is a slight chance of
isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions through mid-day Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 66 minutes earlier and day
length is 114 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net