[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe some down after mid-day Friday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2022 00:06:11 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mildly degraded intervals after mid-day Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded intervals after
mid-day Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 138 and is likely to remain about the
same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and
four tiny NOAA active regions containing 21 sunspots with a total area of
685 micro-hemispheres (about four times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mildly degraded intervals after mid-day
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mildly
degraded intervals after mid-day Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mildly degraded intervals after mid-day Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded intervals after mid-day Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded intervals after mid-day Friday. 12 and 10
meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through
mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar
ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to be
sporadically and briefly enhanced through November. 6 meter
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur regularly at lower
mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter duration
propagation extending to somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts and a slight chance
of strong radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray
radiation from M-class solar flares through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to mostly near background levels with possible
periodic weakly enhanced intervals after mid-day Friday due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Thursday and quiet to
unsettled with possible active intervals after mid-day Friday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects. There is a slight chance of
isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions after mid-day Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 67 minutes earlier and day
length is 116 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net