[RSM] W3LPL: Normal Monday; mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2022 01:05:16 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly
normal after mid-day Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be normal then degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 137 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large and two tiny
NOAA active regions containing 34 sunspots with a total area of 540
micro-hemispheres (about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal then degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly normal
after mid-day Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly
normal after mid-day Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal then
degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal then
degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing radiation
(solar flux index above about 120) and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
activity (K index of 3 or less) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to be
sporadically and briefly enhanced through November. 6 meter
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur regularly at lower
mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter duration
propagation extending to somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts from M-class solar
flares and a slight chance of strong radio blackouts from X-class solar
flares caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from solar
flares through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to near background levels then mildly enhanced
after mid-day Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet with unsettled periods after
mid-day Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. There a
chance of active geomagnetic conditions and a slight chance of brief minor
geomagnetic storm conditions after mid-day Tuesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 70 minutes earlier and day
length is 124 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net