[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe some down after mid-day Thurs

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2022 02:07:30 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
degradations at mid to high latitudes after mid-day Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal with possible
mildly degraded intervals during nighttime hours after mid-day Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with moderately degraded periods during nighttime hours after
mid-day Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 134 and is likely to decline to about 126
on  Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and two tiny
NOAA active regions containing 29 sunspots with a total area of 810
micro-hemispheres (about four times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible degraded periods during
nighttime hours after mid-day Thursday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal
with possible degraded periods during nighttime hours after mid-day
Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible degraded periods during nighttime hours
after mid-day Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible degraded
periods during nighttime hours after mid-day Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with possible degraded periods during nighttime hours after mid-day
Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible degraded periods during nighttime hours after mid-day
Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible degraded periods during nighttime hours after mid-day
Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation is likely to be slightly
enhanced through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing
northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods
of elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter TEP and lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to be
sporadically and briefly enhanced through late November. 6 meter
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) is likely to be slightly enhanced at
lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter duration
propagation occasionally extending to somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts from M-class solar
flares and a slight chance of strong radio blackouts from X-class solar
flares caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from solar
flares through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to moderately enhanced after mid-day Thursday due
to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of
active geomagnetic conditions through Thursday due to mild coronal hole
high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 71 minutes earlier and day
length is 127 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net