[RSM] W3LPL forecast Friday, 18 Nov.

[Art Boyars]

In SS SSB this weekend I'll be using real-time propagation measurements:
click the band button; activate the autotuner; turn the big knob for 15 to
30 seconds to see if anybody is there to work.

Good luck in SS.

73, Art K3KU

========================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2022 00:09:17 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through mid-day
Saturday then mildly to moderately degraded through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
late Saturday then mildly degraded through Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through mid-day Saturday then moderately degraded through
Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 119 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and four tiny
NOAA active regions containing 14 sunspots with a total area of 330
micro-hemispheres (two times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through mid-day Saturday then mildly to
moderately degraded through Sunday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal
through late Saturday then mildly to moderately degraded through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through mid-day Saturday then mildly to moderately
degraded through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through mid-day Saturday
then mildly to moderately degraded through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal through mid-day Saturday then mildly to moderately degraded through
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through mid-day Saturday then mildly to moderately degraded
through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through mid-day Saturday then mildly to moderately degraded through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation is likely to occur sporadically
through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of
elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to occur very
sporadically and briefly through late November. 6 meter trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) is likely to occur sporadically nd briefly at lower
mid-latitudes through November, with infrequent short duration TEP
propagation extending to somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts from M-class
solar flares caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be at ambient levels through mid-day Friday
then possibly mildly enhanced late Friday due to a chance of a glancing
blow by a CME. Mildly to moderately enhanced solar wind is likely with a
slight chance of strongly enhanced solar wind from late Saturday through
Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a slight
chance of active conditions through mid-day Saturday due to a chance of a
glancing blow by a CME. Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely with
a slight chance of strong geomagnetic storm conditions from late Saturday
through mid-day Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 74 minutes earlier and day
length is 133 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net