[RSM] W3LPL propagation forecast 2022 11 16

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2022 23:59:03 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mild degradations at high latitudes early to mid-day Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods during nighttime
hours early to mid-day Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 134 and is likely to decline to about 125
on Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and three tiny
NOAA active regions containing 25 sunspots with a total area of 850
micro-hemispheres (just over four times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods during nighttime hours
early to mid-day Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods during
nighttime hours early to mid-day Friday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly
degraded periods during nighttime hours early to mid-day Friday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods during
nighttime hours early to mid-day Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded periods during nighttime hours early to
mid-day Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mildly degraded periods during nighttime hours early to
mid-day Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation is likely to be
sporadically available through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux
index above about 120) and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index
of 3 or less) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is likely to be sporadic
and brief through late November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
is likely to be sporadic and brief at lower mid-latitudes through November,
with unreliable, short duration propagation sporadically extending to
somewhat higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts from M-class solar
flares and a slight chance of strong radio blackouts from X-class solar
flares caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from solar
flares through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to be at ambient levels through Thursday with a
chance of moderately enhanced solar wind early to mid-day Friday due to
possible influence of a weak glancing blow by a CME.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
conditions and a slight chance of active conditions early to mid-day Friday
due to possible influence of a weak glancing blow by a CME.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 73 minutes earlier and day
length is 129 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net