[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe mild degradations at mid to high lat's local night thru Wed

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2022 01:03:19 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mild degradations at mid to high latitudes during local night time hours
through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local night time hours
through Wednesday. Click *here*
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif> for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 117 and likely to remain about the same
through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium and three tiny
NOAA active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total area of 410
micro-hemispheres (two times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during
local night time hours through Wednesday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations during local night time hours through
Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local night time
hours through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradations during local night time hours through Wednesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local
night time hours through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations during local night time hours through
Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations during local night time hours through
Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation may occur sporadically
through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of
elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is may occur sporadically and
briefly through late November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
may occur sporadically and briefly at lower mid-latitudes through November,
with a slight chance that TEP propagation may briefly extend to somewhat
higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of minor radio blackouts from M-class solar flares
caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation through Wednesday.

The solar wind is likely to be mildly to moderately enhanced with a chance
of strongly enhancement through Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled with possible active
conditions and a slight chance of minor geomagnetic storms through
Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a slight chance
of a glancing blow by a CME.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 76 minutes earlier and day
length is 138 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.  Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net