[RSM] W3LPL forecast for CQWW CW 2022

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2022 00:49:09 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
mild degradations mostly during night time hours through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations mostly during
night time hours at high latitudes through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 110 and likely to remain about the same
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium and one tiny NOAA
active regions containing 21 sunspots with a total area of 410
micro-hemispheres (two times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly
normal with possible mild degradations mostly during night time hours at
high latitudes through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to mostly normal with possible mild degradations during night time hours
mostly at high latitudes through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation may occur
sporadically through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing
northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods
of elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

6 meter lower mid-latitude F2 propagation is may occur sporadically and
briefly through late November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
may occur sporadically and briefly at lower mid-latitudes through November,
with a slight chance that TEP propagation may briefly extend to somewhat
higher mid-latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a slight chance of minor radio blackouts from M-class solar flares
caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be at slightly to mildly enhanced through
Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and possible CME
effects on Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a
chance of isolated geomagnetic storm periods through Sunday due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects and possible CME effects on Sunday.  We are
entering the winter solstice season when geomagnetically disturbed
conditions are about half as likely as during spring and fall.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 77 minutes earlier and day
length is 143 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net