[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some nighttime degradation thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

I missed a couple of days with a case of the busies.  Now, I'm taking
advantage of insomnia to get back in phase. -- Art K3KU/VE4VTR

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2022 02:03:57 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation crossing mid and high latitudes is likely to be
mildly degraded during local night time hours through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but mildly
degraded during local night time hours through Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal but mildly to moderately degraded during local night time
hours through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 108 and likely to remain about the same
through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium size NOAA active
regions containing five sunspots with a total area of 100 micro-hemispheres
(about half the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Thursday. Short
path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Thursday. 40 meter long
path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2130Z is
likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through
Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though
Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through
Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal but
mildly to moderately degraded during local night time hours through
Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation may occur sporadically
through late November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of
elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K index of 3 or less) through
mid-December.

Very long distance 6 meter trans-pacific oblique trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) is likely to occur occasionally through early January
from low mid-latitude North American locations during mid-afternoon at the
path mid-point (evening hours in North America). More northerly
mid-latitude locations less frequently couple into trans-pacific oblique
TEP via sporadic-E. See K6MIO’s excellent article beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are unlikely through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to be moderately to strongly enhanced through
Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled with isolated active periods
on Wednesday and unsettled to active with a chance of isolated minor
geomagnetic storms on Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects. We are entering the winter solstice season when geomagnetically
disturbed conditions occur about half as often as during spring and fall.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and day
length is 149 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net