[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thurs/13

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 12 Oct 2022 02:04:37 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of brief mildly degraded intervals
late Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 150 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny, two medium and
one large NOAA active region containing 32 sunspots with a total area of
600 micro-hemispheres (about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
brief mildly degraded intervals late Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of brief mildly degraded intervals late
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of brief
mildly degraded intervals late Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of brief mildly degraded intervals late Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of brief mildly degraded intervals late Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of brief mildly degraded intervals late Wednesday. 12 and 10
meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through
mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes continues to be enhanced by increased solar ionizing
radiation during periods of mostly normal propagation through mid-December.

6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur frequently at
lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter duration
propagation extending to upper mid-latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts through Thursday
with durations of 15 to 60 minutes or more on paths crossing the daylight
side of the Earth due to unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares.

Solar wind effects are likely to gradually decline to near background
levels through late Thursday. A grazing CME may produce brief mildly
degraded intervals late Wednesday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet through Thursday, A
grazing CME may produce active conditions with a slight chance of brief
minor storm intervals late Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 32 minutes earlier and day
length is 50 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net