[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal thru Friday/14

[Art Boyars]

This just showed up in the PVRC Reflector digest.  I have no idea where or
why it's been hiding since last night. -- Art K3KU/VE4VTR

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 12 Oct 2022 22:55:17 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be normal through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 141 and is likely to remain about the
same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny, two medium and
one large NOAA active region containing 22 sunspots with a total area of
580 micro-hemispheres (about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through
Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 20 meter
transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely
to be normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally
enhanced through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing
northern hemisphere mid-latitudes continues to be enhanced by increased
solar ionizing radiation during periods of mostly normal propagation
through mid-December.

6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur frequently at
lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter duration
propagation extending to upper mid-latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts through Friday with
durations of 15 to 60 minutes or more on paths crossing the daylight side
of the Earth due to unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from
M-class solar flares.

Solar wind effects are likely to be at nominal levels through Friday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 33 minutes earlier and day
length is 52 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net