[RSM] W3LPL: Normal Wed; mostly normal Thurs

[Art Boyars]

 From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2022 01:39:56 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly
normal on Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 114 and likely to decline to about 110 by
Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and three tiny NOAA active
regions containing ten sunspots with a total area of 190 micro-hemispheres
(about the same as Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation to Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal
on Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to
be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on
Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on
Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on
Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced during periods with elevated solar ionizing radiation
and mostly quiet geomagnetic activity through mid-December.

6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur almost every
day at lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter
duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to be at ambient levels on Wednesday and mildly
elevated through mid-day Thursday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Wednesday and mostly quiet on
Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 42 minutes earlier and day
length is 67 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net