[RSM] W3LPL: likely normal thru Thurs, then mostly normal thru Fri

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2022 02:24:59 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through late Thursday
then mostly normal through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal through late Thursday then mostly normal through Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 113 and is likely to remain about the
same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and three tiny
NOAA active regions containing ten sunspots with a total area of 230
micro-hemispheres (slightly larger than Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL, the south Pacific
is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be normal through late Thursday then mostly normal through
Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal
through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through late Thursday then mostly normal through Friday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through late Thursday then mostly
normal through Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal through late Thursday then
mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
late Thursday then mostly normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
late Thursday then mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced during periods with elevated solar ionizing radiation
and mostly quiet geomagnetic activity through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be enhanced during early November as
many more large sunspot groups are likely to rotate onto the visible disk.
6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur almost every
day at lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter
duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Friday.

The solar wind is likely to be at ambient levels through late Thursday then
mildly elevated through Friday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet until late Thursday with
unsettled periods through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 43 minutes earlier and day
length is 69 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.



Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net