[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal thru Sunday/23

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2022 01:09:28 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web

pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals

and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.


Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 116 and is likely to remain

about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium

and one tiny NOAA active region containing 13 sunspots with a

total area of only 100 micro-hemispheres (about half of the Earth’s

surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL, the

south Pacific and Asia is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia

at about 0000Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path

propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z

is likely to be normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions

is likely to be normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is

always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon

because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals

and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. 20 meter

transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset

is likely to be normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal

through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal

through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation continues

to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2

propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely

to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing radiation

solar flux index above about 120) and mostly quiet geomagnetic

activity (K index of 1 or 2) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be enhanced during early November

as many more large sunspot groups are likely to rotate onto and

newly emerge on the visible disk potentially driving the solar flux

index to about 160 or higher. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation

(TEP) continues to occur almost every day at lower mid-latitudes

through November, with less reliable, shorter duration propagation

extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component

of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but

unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor

to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the

IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength

of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects

of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent,

longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered

suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward

orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger than

5 nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects

of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including

Bz orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray

radiation from M-class solar flares are not expected through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be mostly at ambient levels through

Saturday with mildly increased wind speed during Sunday due to

moderate coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet with a chance of isolated

unsettled intervals through Saturday then mostly quiet with isolated

unsettled intervals and a slight chance of isolated active intervals

during Sunday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 45 minutes earlier and

day length is 73 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.


Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.


Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net