[RSM] (no subject)

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2022 01:10:49 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal, improving
to normal after mid-day Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible below normal intervals through mid-day Tuesday,
improving to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 108 and is likely to decline to about 100
on Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one five tiny NOAA active regions
containing 15 sunspots with a total area of only 90 micro-hemispheres
(about half of the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL, the south Pacific
and Asia is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal
through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal
intervals through mid-day Tuesday, improving to mostly normal after mid-day
Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible below normal intervals
through mid-day Tuesday, improving to mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals through mid-day Tuesday, improving to
mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible below normal intervals through mid-day Tuesday, improving to
mostly normal after mid-day Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation
continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing radiation (solar flux
index above about 120) and mostly quiet geomagnetic activity (K index of 1
or 2) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be enhanced during early November as
many more large sunspot groups are likely to rotate onto and newly emerge
on the visible disk potentially driving the solar flux index to about 160
or higher. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur
almost every day at lower mid-latitudes through November, with less
reliable, shorter duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Tuesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly to moderately enhanced through
mid-day Tuesday due to moderate coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated
unsettled intervals through Tuesday. There is a chance of isolated active
intervals early Tuesday due to moderate coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 48 minutes earlier and day
length is 79 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net