[RSM] W3LPL: Normal, then down to mostly normal late Thurs

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2022 23:58:48 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly
normal late Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.   Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be normal then degrading to mostly normal late Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 116 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium sized and
three tiny NOAA active regions containing 22 sunspots with a total area of
340 micro-hemispheres (about twice the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL, the south Pacific
and Asia is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal then degrading to mostly normal late Thursday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly normal
late Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal then degrading to mostly normal
late Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal then
degrading to mostly normal late Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal then
degrading to mostly normal late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing radiation
(solar flux index above about 120) and mostly quiet geomagnetic activity (K
index of 1 or 2) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may continue to be slightly and sporadically
enhanced through mid-November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
continues to occur almost every day at lower mid-latitudes through
November, with significantly less reliable, shorter duration propagation
extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Thursday.

The solar wind is likely to be primarily ambient then degrading to
moderately disturbed late Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet degrading to probable
unsettled intervals and a chance of active intervals late Thursday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 51 minutes earlier and day
length is 83 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net