[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal Sat and Sun, with some below normal periods

[Art Boyars]

Everything ya' need to plan for CQWW SSB this weekend.  I hope to have my
new mic ready for a couple of trial QSOs by Sunday afternoon.  Happy
contesting! -- Art K3KU


From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2022 01:31:05 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
periods during Saturday and Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals during Saturday and Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with probable below normal periods during Saturday and Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 130 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium sized and three
tiny NOAA active regions containing 22 sunspots with a total area of 370
micro-hemispheres (about two times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods during Saturday and
Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0900Z is likely to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods
during Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods during Saturday and
Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with probable below normal
periods during Saturday and Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within
a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
probable below normal periods during Saturday and Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with probable below normal periods during Saturday and Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with probable below normal periods during Saturday and Sunday. 12 and 10
meter long path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through
mid-November. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar
ionizing radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and quiet geomagnetic
activity (K index of 1 or 2) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may continue to be slightly and sporadically
enhanced through mid-November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
continues to occur regularly at lower mid-latitudes through November, with
significantly less reliable, shorter duration propagation extending to
higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Sunday.

The solar wind is likely to be to moderately disturbed through Sunday due
to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet during Friday, then quiet
to unsettled with probable active intervals through Sunday due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects.  There is a slight chance of an isolated
minor geomagnetic storm on Friday, probable geomagnetic storms on Saturday
and a chance of minor geomagnetic storms on Sunday

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 54 minutes earlier and day
length is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net