[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal, maybe some below normal thru Tues/2

[Art Boyars]

This almost got lost among the reports from CQWW SSB -- Art K3KU


From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2022 01:39:59 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
below normal periods through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with probable below normal periods through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 131 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium sized and two
tiny NOAA active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total area of 390
micro-hemispheres (about twice the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods through Tuesday.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is
likely to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods through
Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with probable below normal periods through Tuesday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with probable below normal
periods through Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with probable below
normal periods through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with probable below normal periods through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with probable below normal periods through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long
path propagation continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November.
12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes
is likely to be enhanced during periods of elevated solar ionizing
radiation (solar flux index above about 120) and quiet geomagnetic activity
(K index of 1 or 2) through mid-December.

6 meter TEP and F2 propagation may be slightly and sporadically enhanced
through mid-November. 6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues
to occur regularly at lower mid-latitudes through November, with
unreliable, shorter duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation
from M-class solar flares are not expected through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to be to mildly elevated through Tuesday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active with a slight
chance of minor geomagnetic storms through Tuesday due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 57 minutes earlier and day
length is 95 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net