[RSM] W3LPL: Perhaps some slightly below normal at night thru Friday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 01:11:42 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mildly depressed intervals during nighttime hours through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing the low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly depressed
intervals during nighttime hours.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 113 likely to slightly decline to about
110 by Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny and one large active
region containing 22 sunspots with a total area of 500 micro-hemispheres
(about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation
to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly depressed
intervals.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly depressed
intervals. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly depressed
intervals.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly depressed intervals. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly
depressed intervals during nighttime hours. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of mildly depressed intervals during nighttime hours. Long
distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely
degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2
region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mildly depressed intervals during nighttime hours. There
is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to
mid-afternoon in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mildly depressed intervals. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid- latitudes is likely to be poor due to
seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer. There is a slight chance
of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning to mid-afternoon
in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be at ambient quiet levels through
Friday.   Minor to moderate radio blackouts are possible through Friday on
paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to likely M-class solar
flares.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 59 minutes earlier and day
length is 113 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net