[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some small nighttime downers thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 01:31:48 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mildly depressed periods during nighttime hours through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal on Friday,
degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to mostly normal with a
chance of mildly depressed intervals especially during nighttime hours.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions likely to be
normal on Friday degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to
mostly normal with moderately depressed periods especially during nighttime
hours.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 116 likely to remain about the same
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two tiny, one medium and one
large active region containing 27 sunspots with a total area of 480
micro-hemispheres (about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia
is likely to be normal on Friday degrading from early Saturday through late
Sunday to mostly normal with moderately depressed periods.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal on Friday degrading from early Saturday
through late Sunday to be mostly normal with moderately depressed periods.
Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is
likely to be normal on Friday, degrading from early Saturday through late
Sunday to mostly normal with moderately depressed periods.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal on Friday degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to
be mostly normal with moderately depressed periods. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal on Friday degrading from early
Saturday through late Sunday to mostly normal with moderately depressed
periods especially during nighttime hours. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal on Friday
degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to be mostly normal with
moderately depressed periods especially during nighttime hours. Long
distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely
degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2
region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Friday
degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to mostly normal with
moderately depressed periods especially during nighttime hours.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Friday
degrading from early Saturday through late Sunday to mostly normal with
moderately depressed periods. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing
northern hemisphere mid- latitudes is likely to be poor due to seasonally
depressed F2 MUFs through late summer.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be at ambient quiet levels on Friday
degrading the mildly to moderately enhanced from early Saturday through
late Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.   Minor to
moderate radio blackouts are possible through Sunday on paths crossing the
daylight side of the Earth due to a chance of M-class solar flares.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet on Friday degrading by
early Saturday to mostly unsettled to active. Minor to moderate geomagnetic
storm conditions are likely during Sunday with a chance of strong
geomagnetic storm conditions after mid-day Sunday due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 60 minutes earlier and day
length is 118 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net