[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe significantly degraded thru Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 01:35:37 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal to significantly
degraded for propagation crossing high latitudes through Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web

pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal

with degraded periods through early Tuesday then improving to

mostly normal.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal to degraded

through mid-day Tuesday then improving to mostly normal through late

Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions likely to be

mostly degraded with normal periods through mid-day Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 128 and likely slightly decline

through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny, two medium

and one large active region containing 20 sunspots with a total area

of 740 micro-hemispheres (about four times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap


160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the

south Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal with degraded

periods through mid-day Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter propagation

to Asia is likely to be mostly degraded with normal periods

through mid-day Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia

at about 0000Z is likely to be mostly below normal with degraded

periods through mid-day Tuesday. Short path propagation from

North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be

mostly below normal with normal periods through mid-day Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions

is likely to be mostly below normal with degraded periods through

mid-day Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly

degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region

blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals

and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal with degraded

periods through mid-day Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation

within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly

below normal with degraded periods through mid-day Tuesday. Long

distance 20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely

degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via

the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly

below normal with degraded periods through mid-day Tuesday. There

is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning

to mid-afternoon in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly

below normal with degraded periods through mid-day Tuesday. 12 and

10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid- latitudes

is likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through

late summer.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed

stream effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about

twice as frequent through mid-October. Persistent southward

orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the

interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable

role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate

geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists

n a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about

5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an

Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer

duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly

and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation

(-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas

for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth

directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation

and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be moderately enhanced through

early Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream and weak CME

effects.



Minor to moderate radio blackouts are possible through Tuesday

on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to a chance

of M-class solar flares.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be moderately enhanced through

early Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream and weak CME

effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 63 minutes earlier

and day length is 123 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.


Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net