[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe some degradation thru Thurs.

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 01:51:13 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely but propagation
crossing high latitudes during nighttime hours may be mildly degraded
through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions may be mildly
degraded during nighttime hours through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 154 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has three tiny, two medium
and one large active region containing 33 sunspots with a total area of 870
micro-hemispheres (about five times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mildly degraded through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z Thursday is likely to be mildly degraded through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to
be mildly degraded through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mildly degraded through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during
nighttime hours through Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal but mildly
degraded during nighttime hours through Thursday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded
during nighttime hours through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded
during nighttime hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be poor due to
seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late September.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels, with a chance of
slightly elevated solar wind from late Wednesday through early Thursday due
to a chance of weak coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible
glancing blow by a weak CME.

Minor to moderate radio blackouts with durations of 15 to 30 minutes or
less are possible on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to
X-ray radiation from possible M-class solar flares. There is a slight
chance of a strong radio blackout with duration of about one hour or less
on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to X-ray radiation
from an X1-class solar flare.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet through Thursday, with
a chance of unsettled to active conditions from late Wednesday through
early Thursday due to a chance of weak coronal hole high speed stream
effects and a possible glancing blow by a weak CME.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and day
length is 144 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net