[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; mildly degraded Tues nighttime

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 01:33:41 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal. High latitude
propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions likely to
experience brief periods of mild degradation during Tuesday nighttime
hours. Click *here*
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif> for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 152 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has three tiny and four medium
sized active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total area of 410
micro-hemispheres (about 2.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed
F2 MUFs for the next few weeks.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
for the next few weeks. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels but gradually
increasing after mid-day Tuesday due to expected weak coronal hole high
speed stream effects.   There is a chance of minor to moderate radio
blackouts with durations of 15 to 30 minutes or less during Tuesday on
paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to X-ray radiation from
possible M-class solar flares.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet until mid-day Tuesday
when brief periods of unsettled conditions may be caused by weak coronal
hole high speed stream effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 75 minutes earlier and day
length is 139 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st. Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net