[RSM] W3LPL: Mixed condx thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

(I'll be off-line Monday and Tuesday; no W3LPL reports those days - Art)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 00:07:48 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with mild
nighttime degradation of propagation crossing mid and high latitudes
through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.
Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with mild
degradations during nighttime hours through Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through
Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 137 and is likely to decline slightly
through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two tiny, one medium and two
large NOAA active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total area of 980
micro-hemispheres (about six times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through
Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0900Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through
Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals
during nighttime hours through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
below normal intervals through Sunday. Long distance 20 meter propagation
crossing low latitudes during daylight hours may be degraded by F1 region
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday. 12 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be mostly fair and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly poor due to seasonally depressed F2
MUFs through late September.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced through Sunday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible weak CME impact
during Saturday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts with durations of 15
to 30 minutes or less on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth
through Sunday due to X-ray radiation from possible M-class solar flares.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled on Friday
than unsettled to active through Sunday with isolated minor storm intervals
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible weak CME
impact during Saturday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 4 minutes earlier and day length
is 5 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net