[RSM] W3LPL: Mixed condx thru Sunday

Fri Sep 23 12:27:21 EDT 2022

Hello RSM Members,

_Thank you Art _for forwarding the W3LPL Prop reports or prop forecast?
Anyways, its interesting to read all the prop forecasts and compare their
forecasting to actual prop at one's own QTH.

At my QTH 15M is still sporadic and 10M is just beacons and north-south 
stuff
around noon local time.

Next RSM meeting?

73, Gord VE6SV

On 2022-09-23 7:18 a.m., Art Boyars wrote:
> (I'll be off-line Monday and Tuesday; no W3LPL reports those days - Art)
>
> From: Frank W3LPL<donovanf at starpower.net>
> To: PVRC<pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 00:07:48 -0400 (EDT)
> Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with mild
> nighttime degradation of propagation crossing mid and high latitudes
> through Sunday
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
> is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
> this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
>
> Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.
> Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with mild
> degradations during nighttime hours through Sunday.
>
> Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
> mostly normal with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through
> Sunday.
>
> Click *here*<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
> for today’s
> latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here*<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html>  for N0NBH’s current HF Band
> Conditions, updated regularly
>
> Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 137 and is likely to decline slightly
> through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two tiny, one medium and two
> large NOAA active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total area of 980
> micro-hemispheres (about six times the Earth’s surface area).
> https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
>
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
> south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
> meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
> intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday.
>
> 40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
> 0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through
> Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
> 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through
> Sunday.
>
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
> to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through Sunday. 30 meter
> propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
> noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
>
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
> and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals
> during nighttime hours through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
> within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
> below normal intervals through Sunday. Long distance 20 meter propagation
> crossing low latitudes during daylight hours may be degraded by F1 region
> blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.
>
> 17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
> with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday.
>
> 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
> with below normal intervals during nighttime hours through Sunday. 12 meter
> F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
> be mostly fair and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
> mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly poor due to seasonally depressed F2
> MUFs through late September.
>
> Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
> effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
> through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
> north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
> crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
> minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
> IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
> about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
> Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
> duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
> unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
> IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
> hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
> Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
> strength are available here:
> www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
>
> Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced through Sunday due to
> coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible weak CME impact
> during Saturday.
>
> There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts with durations of 15
> to 30 minutes or less on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth
> through Sunday due to X-ray radiation from possible M-class solar flares.
>
> Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled on Friday
> than unsettled to active through Sunday with isolated minor storm intervals
> due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible weak CME
> impact during Saturday.
>
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 4 minutes earlier and day length
> is 5 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.
>
> Click *here*<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php>  for today’s
> Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
>
> Click *here*
> <https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
> for today’s
> three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here*<http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/>  for today's SIDC Daily
> Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here*<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
> for today's
> SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here*<https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1>  for today's
> Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
> daily.
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation  andhttp://www.solarham.net
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