[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thursday/29

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 00:56:51 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mild degradations on Wednesday improving to
normal on Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 135 and is likely to remain about the
same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny, two small and
two medium size NOAA active regions containing 60 sunspots with a total
area of 650 micro-hemispheres (about three times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with mild
degradations on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly
normal with mild degradations on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with mild degradations on Wednesday improving to normal
on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is mostly normal with mild degradations on Wednesday
improving to normal on Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with mild
degradations on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. Long distance 20
meter propagation crossing low latitudes during daylight hours may be
degraded by F1 region blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with mild degradations on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with mild degradations on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 12
meter long path is seasonally enhanced through mid-November but 10 meter
long path is less enhanced because of marginal sunspot activity. 12 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be mostly fair and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly poor due to seasonally depressed F2
MUFs through late September.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced through late Wednesday due
to weak coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects, improving to near
background levels on Thursday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts with durations of 15
to 30 minutes or less on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth
through Thursday due to X-ray radiation due to a chance of M-class solar
flares.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be unsettled through late
Wednesday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects. Quiet
conditions are likely on Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is ten minutes earlier and day
length is 14 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net